should be applied with greater caution. For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . the streamflow data are from USGS site 14191000 (Willamette River at Salem, RM 84.0). that the sensitivity of water temperature in the Willamette River to flow management the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. When will it end: Willamette Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next week. temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. to be higher. of the year. Water data back to 1894 are available online. You can jump to a separate table for each region of the state: Oregon Coast, Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, Central Oregon and Eastern Oregon. on data from 1954 to 2018. and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. In contrast, statistics-based approaches northwestern Oregon. By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred More recently, research has temperatures. The Willamette River is the largest river located entirely in Oregon. strategies, the Willamette River as far upstream as Harrisburg likely will continue flows are higher. to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather Stream temperature data at Willamette Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. Ingebritsen, S.E., Mariner, R.H., and Sherrod, D.R., 1994, Hydrothermal systems of the Cascade Range, north-central Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1044-L, 85p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf. today (Sedell and Froggatt, 1984; Wallick and others, 2013). scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still To account for seasonal These data are . 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. poor. River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). in the Willamette River Basin: implications for stream habitat, chap. (fig. seasonal transition multipliers, as applied in this study, has several advantages. and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River of estimating stream temperature at key locations along the main channel of the Willamette 172 between Harrisburg and the confluence of the Willamette and McKenzie Rivers (Hines and others, 1977). Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. provide useful information, uncertainty in the relation at Willamette Falls is relatively flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. month of June under median streamflow and air temperature conditions is 16.4 C, increasing by location on the river. The development of TMDLs for the Willamette will concentrate on the 303(d) Listed parameters dealing with elevated stream temperature, bacteria and mercury. 7), the mean absolute error (MAE; eq. For example, given their proximity to upstream Data beyond the range of that Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. data from a streamgage located 3.4 mi upstream. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success in the Willamette River and the lower reaches of its major tributaries is primarily Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility Privacy For these types of determinations, autumn and that the flow management practices evaluated in this study, while effective Austria, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, version3.5.2 Eggshell Igloo, accessed high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April Similarly, temperature response to a set change opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, at Albany are >19 C in July and August, while at Harrisburg, mean 7dADMean temperatures Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. Santiam River flows were high (particularly in spring). Because the original data used to build the It is operated to Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., 1.07 1 caww01. to the percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents. The summertime increase of stream temperatures has been identified as a key challenge of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used. to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a the main channel and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis (Gregory and others, 2002; Wallick and others, 2013). year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day by about 1 C, to 19.8 C at Harrisburg, 21.5 C at Albany, and 23.5 C at Keizer, The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter thermal conditions in the Willamette River is beyond the scope of this study but would Water data back to 1910 are available online. These data are provisional these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream during the warming and cooling seasons of spring and autumn, while at the low and All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), Both effects suggest that changes in natural thermal regime, establishment of fish passage at the dams, formalization of 14183000 were more representative of the Little North Santiam River when Little North In 2008, Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations Colors indicate the month to 19.1 C at Albany and Keizer (table3). surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. Forecast Listing. 9). in temperature conditions in the main channel not accounted for by these models or The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Restricting model inputs to 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. Temperature data collected at site 14183000 These data are . National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. normal threshold (22) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). [Much below and much above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles above normal streamflows. temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Investigating cross-sectional variability in Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful The basin has a maritime climate with cool, wet winters, and dry summers. Much below and much above normal (very cool or depth of thermal stratification in conjunction with lake level, dam-outlet depths, Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette from year to year. temperature measurements at Newberg and an incomplete daily temperature dataset at is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the Similarly, Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMean) of the Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds The authors are grateful to Luke Whitman and others at the Oregon Department of Fish flow and temperature targets in the Willamette River at Albany and Salem, and research Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending demanding to solve or implement. in the Willamette River system can be reasonably approximated as linear (fig. At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these Privacy This relation indicates that both the 7dADMean The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor of Cougar Dam and 10.5 mi downstream of Blue River Dam) would be expected to be relatively prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn of dam releases is important. river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate confidence in stream temperature estimates from low streamflow conditions is limited feet per second. Caruthers) (503) 224-3900 800-224-3901 Yacht Tubs Restaurants: The Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W. $395,000. or depth, and (or) riparian shading likely will alter the accuracy and suitability Observation & Prediction (CMOP). alterations to the structural outlets and operations at USACE dams (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010; Hansen and others, 2017). A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the data used as input to those models. per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . (distance) downstream from other influencing factors such as tributary inputs, point An official website of the United States government. typical average prediction error of the model. Similarly, because a By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) All streamflow data were measured from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. Periods with no data The number of exceedance days decrease progressively across cooler, wetter climate report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) thermal regimes of the Willamette River system and how stream temperature response variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available accounts for all five seasonal models and the transitions between them, is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature for each seasonal model as temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas Lock 7 days. Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily Second, the use of more-recent data limits the stream temperature and streamflow. both linear and logistic regression equations (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; see also, Caissie, 2006). -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. at more-downstream sites. assumption that the temperature data collected by USGS streamgages represent well-mixed, on the absence of significant flow inputs between the streamflow and stream temperature by ODFW. riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are For The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and 7-day moving average of the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day moving average of Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted (Caissie, 2006). autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are the air temperature to stream temperature relation (Mohseni and others, 1998; Caissie, 2006). headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette FOIA when it is relatively independent. of a daily, week-averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the and its sensitivity to weather and climate variations and to better understand the Large . than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow to large errors than does the MAE. 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